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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Friday, Jan 29

Crisis in Spain and Greece: Plan A and Plan B

There's no bailout. There's no way out," French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said, after a closed-door meeting with European Commissioner Joaquin Almunia and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet. Though, talk of a bailout has been dismissed, the idea continues...

Monday, Jan 25

Wall Street Journal Questions Bernanke's Credibility and Political Will

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is warning that a Senate rejection of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's nomination for a second term would lead to "very troubling" reaction from the financial markets.

Thursday, Jan 21

Healthcare: The Un-Baked Cake - Has It Melted?

President Obama signaled on Wednesday that he might be willing to scale back his proposed health care overhaul to a version that could attract bipartisan support, as the White House and Congressional Democrats grappled with a political landscape transformed by the Republican victor...

Wednesday, Jan 20

Glass-Steagall: Be Careful What You Wish

Hedge Funds And Banking Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch should not be bank holding companies either. Citigroup, Wells Fargo and literally all the banks need to bring off-balance sheet garbage onto the balance sheet and mark it to market.

No Way Out For Japan

The Business Insider has a fantastic Interview With Hayman Capital Founder Kyle Bass. Bass testified at the crisis hearings in Washington, about Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, bank capital, bank leverage and derivatives. He discussed those issues with CNBC's David Faber along with his forec...

Tuesday, Jan 19

CNN Money On Small Business Lending

Many banks are getting hammered with enormous credit card losses, and more foreclosures and commercial real estate writeoffs are coming down the pike and they have made no allowances to cover the losses. Those wanting to rail about something ought to rail about FDIC and Fed decisions tha...

Sunday, Jan 17

Massachusetts Senate Race a Health-Care Referendum or a Referendum on Anger and Abuse of Power?

On the Republican side, and with the "Blue-Dog" fiscal Democrats as well, his continuation of Bush's bailout policies have not played well. He is attempting to sidestep the bailout issue now with a tax on financial institutions, but by playing it both he ways looks disingenuous.

Wednesday, Jan 13

Money Talks, Google Walks, Other Potpourri

AP Exclusive: Obama wants $33 billion more for warThe Obama administration plans to ask Congress for an additional $33 billion to fight unpopular wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, on top of a record request for $708 billion for the Defense Department next year, The Associated Press has lear...

In Defense Of Secrecy; Three Prong Attack On The Fed; Selective Myopia

Towns chairs the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. The committee is investigating deals that diverted billions of AIG bailout dollars to banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. What's On The Fed's Balance Sheet?

Tuesday, Jan 12

Housing Bubbles, Global Household Leverage, Why Fed's Reflation Efforts Will Fail

Household Leverage Household Leverage vs. Home Prices There is no possible regulation that can stop a credit binge brought about by cheap money and fractional reserve lending that enabled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to borrow money into existence at will.

Saturday, Jan 2

Iceland's Parliament Coerced Into Offering Bribes, Hoping For Quick Entry Into EU

Please consider Icelanders petition president to veto Icesave bill. Nearly a quarter of Icelandic voters have signed a petition asking their president to veto a bill on repaying $5 billion lost by British and Dutch savers when the island's banks collapsed, organizers said on Saturday.

Sunday, Dec 27

The Most Redeeming Feature of Capitalism is Failure

Intervention created Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the "AAA" rating of pure junk via government sponsorship of Moody's Fitch, and the S&P. Of course government could have decided to bankroll capital losses at those new banks, just as it now does with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Saturday, Dec 26

All Hail The Grand Poobah; Blank Checks For Fannie and Freddie

The companies on Thursday disclosed new packages that will pay Fannie Chief Executive Officer Michael Williams and Freddie CEO Charles Haldeman Jr. as much as $6 million a year, including bonuses. The packages were approved by the Treasury and the Federal Housing Finance Agency, or FHFA...

Thursday, Dec 24

Schwarzenegger Seeks Rule Changes on Mandates and Social Programs To Ease $21 Billion Budget Gap

California is in a mess because in practice "nothing" is on the table. Democrats do not want to cut services. Nor do Democrats want to address unions, pension problems, or illegal immigration. Meanwhile Republicans do not want to raise taxes and I certainly cannot blame them on that score.

Tuesday, Dec 22

Corrupt Politics and Imprudent Bailouts are Two Peas in Same Pod

Banks whose executives served on Federal Reserve boards were more likely to receive government bailout funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, according to the study from Ran Duchin and Denis Sosyura, professors at the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business.

Monday, Dec 21

Beware the Taxpayer Bailout of Underfunded Teamsters Pension Funds

Struggling No. 1 U.S. trucking company YRC Worldwide Inc plans to seek $1 billion in bailout money from the Troubled Asset Relief Program to help it cover pension obligations, a move analysts say is unlikely to succeed as the company has no financial charter.

Sunday, Dec 13

Citigroup Near Agreement on Tarp Repayment, What Will It Sell Now?

Citigroup also plans an early termination of guarantees from the Treasury, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Federal Reserve on $301 billion of the bank’s riskiest securities, mortgages, auto loans, commercial real estate and other assets, the people said.

Friday, Dec 11

GMAC at the Forefront of Ginnie Mae's Troubled Issuers

Flashback October 28: GMAC May Receive Third Government Bailout in November GMAC Inc., the lender that received two government bailouts totaling $13.5 billion, is negotiating with the Treasury Department for a possible third lifeline next month, people familiar with the matter said.

Thursday, Dec 10

Taxpayers On The Hook For Ginnie Mae's Rampant Growth

I say the same thing about Ginnie Mae that I have said about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: The first thing any regulator in his right mind would do would be to shut them all down. Hey, what the heck. Wall Street was bailed out, who cares about Main Street?

Tuesday, Dec 8

EU Ready to Bailout Greece; Debt Downgrades in Baltic States; Can Euroland Even Survive?

“The situation in Greece is very difficult,” European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said Dec. 7. “We all know the figures, and we all know the very important, courageous decisions that have to be taken to put the situation back on track.” Greece Government Bonds Tumble

Thursday, Dec 3

Senator Bunning to Bernanke "You are the definition of a moral hazard. Your Fed has become the Creature From Jekyll Island"

Chairman Greenspan sold the Fed's independence to Wall Street on the so called "Greenspan PUT". Whenever Wall Street needed a boost, Alan was there. But you went even farther than that when you bowed to the political pressure of the Bush and Obama Administrations, and turned the Fed into an...

Monday, Nov 30

Zombie Capitalism: Bernanke "Marching Ignorantly Forward"

Instead we bailed out Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Citigroup, and Bank of America bondholders while raping the GM bondholders (the latter so that Obama could appease the unions). In other words, Paulson, Geithner, Bernanke, Obama, and Congress effectively conspired to rob the poor to bail...

Sunday, Nov 29

Bank of America Has "Good Excuse" for Not Offering Mortgage Modifications; HAMP a Spectacular Failure

The administration’s $75 billion Making Home Affordable program includes the mortgage modification initiative and loan refinancing through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Problem Loans at Bank of America Notice how the plan operates. It takes mortgages and dumps them on the taxpayer via a...

Saturday, Nov 21

Plundering California: How Public-Sector Unions Brought The State To Its Knees

The story doesn’t end with the imbalance in pay and benefits. Government workers also enjoy absurd protections. The Los Angeles Times did a recent series about the city’s public school district, which doesn’t even try to fire incompetent teachers and is seldom able to get rid of those cred...

Wednesday, Nov 18

Freefall In Small Business Loans

Small businesses are the heart of the American economy," Obama said in a speech at the White House. "They're responsible for half of all private sector jobs, and they created roughly 70% of all new jobs in the past decade. They're not only job generators, they're at the heart of the American D...

Saturday, Nov 14

Bair: "Bank Bailout NOT a good thing"; Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp (PBGC) Bailout Coming

David Stevens: "Bailout is a term widely used with financial institutions. FHA is a government agency so let's just be clear. .... FHA does not operate under the same context as a typical financial institution. So the term bailout really just does not apply technically"

Friday, Nov 13

FHA Bailout By Taxpayers On The Way

Kenneth Donohue, inspector general of the Housing and Urban Development Department, seemed to be shaking his head. “What does the FHA think it is doing by asking only 3.5 percent?” he asked. (FHA is part of HUD.) Fannie Mae exists to expand affordable housing.

Wednesday, Nov 4

Bank of England Throws Money at Economy

“They’ve got to throw money at it,” said Neil Mackinnon, an economist at VTB Capital Plc and a former U.K. Treasury official. “The fact of the matter is that the U.K. economy is lagging behind. As to whether quantitative easing is working, the jury is still out.” Quantitative Easing History Lesso...

Sunday, Nov 1

Ron Paul on Forbes: Be Prepared For The Worst; On Larry King Discussing Michael Moore

I agree with most of what Ron Paul says except for the likelihood of hyperinflation. While theoretically possible, concern should be more over what legislation Barney Frank and Congress comes up with rather than what Bernanke is going to do next.

Thursday, Oct 22

Fed Owns Deserted Oklahoma City Mall

Plosser didn’t elaborate on how the Fed would dispose of the $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities it plans to purchase through March. The Fed is also buying up to $200 billion of housing-finance debt as part of efforts to lower interest rates and revive home-buying.

Wednesday, Oct 21

Express Your Outrage At Showdown In Chicago

A bill that would require the Fed to disclose what it did with more than $2 trillion in loans to banks and other financial institutions was originally co-sponsored by Ron Paul and Alan Grayson, one of the most conservative and one of the most progressive members of Congress. Due to public pr...

Monday, Oct 19

Where The Hell Is The Outrage?

How Goldman Sachs Leveraged $70 Billion In Government Money I am outraged about indictments. Paulson Admitted Coercion to force a shotgun wedding between Bank of America and Merrill Lynch yet no indictments were handed out. Let the Criminal Indictments Begin: Paulson, Bernanke, Lewis.

Thursday, Oct 8

Can We Really Trust The Leading Economic Indicators?

That is the best we could do in spite of a ridiculous give away on Cash-For-Clunkers, and a free $8,000 down payment on homes, a trillion dollar deficit, numerous bailout programs, and the Fed expanding its balance sheet by trillions of dollars.

Saturday, Sep 26

Fed Offers 2 Cents on the "Audit the Fed" Dollar

Inquiring minds are reading Thomas E. Woods, Jr. Testimony in Support of HR 1207, The Federal Reserve Transparency Act of 2009 before the House Financial Services Committee, September 25, 2009. I am speaking this morning in support of HR 1207, the Federal Reserve Transparency Act. As the Co...

Wednesday, Sep 23

I Endorse Peter Schiff For Senate

I wholeheartedly endorse Peter Schiff for Senate. Lehman Brothers Revisited The four agencies Dodd would want to make into one include the Federal Reserve, the Office of Thrift Supervision, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Comptroller of the Currency.

Monday, Sep 21

Is Pent-Up Inflation From Fed Printing Waiting On Deck?

So the only way the roughly US$1 trillion of money that the Federal Reserve has injected into the banks will result in additional spending is if American families and businesses take out another US $8-10 trillion in loans. What are the odds that this will happen, when they already owe more t...

Wednesday, Aug 19

Rally in 6th Inning or Top of the 12th?

Please note the thought "It is unclear why the US Federal Reserve has allowed this to occur." I estimate another $10 trillion to $20 trillion in debt/derivatives is still bad. The government is resurrecting PPIP to try to make that debt look better.

Thursday, Jul 9

Email From Canada In Support Of Unions

I am a member of Millwright Local 1007 Niagara Falls(Ontario Canada) We are a part of The Carpenters and Joiners of America. Unions (along with piss poor management) helped sink GM and that spurred another bailout. One of the reasons for an exodus of jobs is unions and union rules. I have heard...

Wednesday, Apr 1

More Ugly Details Emerge On "Geithner's Heist America Plan"

The Obama Administration insists it wants to "partner" with private investors for its new toxic-asset purchase plan. But the more details that emerge, the more it seems Treasury wants to work with only a select few companies. This is no way to conduct a bank clean-up.

Monday, Feb 23

Purposeful Joint Lie by the Treasury, Fed, FDIC

Currently, the major U.S. banking institutions have capital in excess of the amounts required to be considered well capitalized. This program is designed to ensure that these major banking institutions have sufficient capital to perform their critical role in our financial system on an...

Monday, Jan 19

Damn the Losses, Full Lend Ahead

A new bailout of British lenders will take the government stake in Royal Bank of Scotland to 70% following the Treasury’s £100bn lifeline. Britain’s bank bosses are on standby to be called to Downing Street today or tomorrow to hear details of the new rescue plan.

Tuesday, Jan 6

Reflections On 2008, Themes For 2009

2008 brought a continuation of the housing crash, massive foreclosures, rising unemployment, the collapse of Bear Stearns, the bankruptcy of Lehman, a $700 billion bailout that most citizens were against, fear mongering by Bush and Paulson to get the bailout bill passed, a ponzi sche...

Friday, Dec 26

When The Chips Are Down, Chipmakers Resort To Other Means

AMD Monthly Chart The Wall Street Journal is reporting Wal-Mart to Start Selling iPhones. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said Friday it will begin selling Apple Inc.'s iPhone 3G on Sunday, but the cellphones will not be priced as low as some anticipated.

Friday, Dec 5

Good News For Modern Man: Congressional Bickering

Congressional bickering is back in vogue as Dodd, Frank Warn Paulson May Not Get TARP’s Next $350 Billion. Two top U.S. lawmakers warned Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson that he may not get the second half of the $700 billion financial rescue fund, joining Republicans upset with how the pro...

Monday, Nov 24

Citigroup Bailout Raises Viability Questions For Entire Banking System

Nationalizations take dramatic losses from the private sector and places them on the larger balance sheet of the public sector, he said. "It's not good," but society is vulnerable and society is going to have to intervene, Hendry said.

Saturday, Nov 8

Weekly Economic Potpourri November 7, 2008

Credit Swap Disclosure Obscures True Financial Risk The most comprehensive report on unregulated credit-default swaps didn't disclose bets in the section of the more than $47 trillion market that helped destroy American International Group Inc., once the world's biggest insurer.

Monday, Nov 3

White House: "Banks Need To Stop Hoarding Money"

Lend For America Plan Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has said the money would be used by banks to rebuild their reserves but President Bush will have none of that. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke chimed in with "Who needs reserves when you have printing presses?"

 
 

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